Economic Insights

Economic Insights covers topics that may ultimately have an impact on commercial real estate conditions including the labor market, population trends, monetary policy announcements from the Federal Reserve and national budgetary issues.

Featured report

Office Employment Softens, but that Won’t Dissuade the Fed from a March Hike

March 10, 2017

Janet Yellen’s comments early in March had suggested that a 25 bps increase in the Fed Funds rate to 0.75% - 1.00% was all but certain next week, and today’s report will do little to dissuade the Committee that the labor market has strengthened sufficiently to remove further policy accommodation.

 

Research search results: 49 found

 
Commercial Real Estate Activity: Sales and Leasing “Expanded Modestly”

Commercial Real Estate Activity: Sales and Leasing “Expanded Modestly”

September 13, 2018

September’s Beige Book report, the Federal Reserve’s qualitative assessment of conditions across the country’s 12 Districts, suggested that economic activity expanded at a moderate pace during July and August.

 
 
 
Commercial Real Estate Activity: “Largely Unchanged”

Commercial Real Estate Activity: “Largely Unchanged”

July 20, 2018

July’s Beige Book report, the Federal Reserve’s qualitative assessment of conditions across the country’s 12 Districts, suggested that economic growth over the last month was split between “modest and moderate” as shown in Table 1, although activity continued to grow at a “solid pace” in the Dallas District due to the rebound in energy prices.

 
 
 
Employment Report Keeps the Fed on its Tightening Trajectory

Employment Report Keeps the Fed on its Tightening Trajectory

July 11, 2018

In this edition of the Economic Pulse, we examine how the low labor force participation rate is being driven by the behavior of young men (ages 25-29). The fraction of young men opting out of participating in the labor force has steadily risen over the last decade, despite a rebound in economic growth. Based on Census population projections and without a change in behavior, the overall labor force participation rate is apt to remain below trend for the next several years as this age cohort continues to comprise a large segment of the working-age population.

 
 
 
Fed tightens for second time this year: What

Fed tightens for second time this year: What's ahead for the balance of 2018?

June 13, 2018

The FOMC decision did not disappoint. As was widely expected, the Federal Funds rate was raised by 25 bps to a range of 1.75% to 2.0%.

 
 
 
Non-Residential Real Estate Activity: “Slackening” in NY, “Mixed” to “Improving” Elsewhere

Non-Residential Real Estate Activity: “Slackening” in NY, “Mixed” to “Improving” Elsewhere

May 30, 2018

May’s Beige Book report, the Federal Reserve’s qualitative assessment of conditions across the country’s 12 Districts, suggested that economic growth over the last month was split between “modest and moderate” as shown in Table 1, although activity grew at a “solid pace” in Dallas. While most outlooks for growth were characterized as “upbeat,” the uncertainty of international trade policy still weighed on respondents’ minds, as did the impact of higher interest rates. 

 
 
 
New Low in Unemployment Rate, Yet Wage Growth Remains Subdued

New Low in Unemployment Rate, Yet Wage Growth Remains Subdued

May 04, 2018

April’s labor market report was consistent with above-trend growth in the economy, despite some mixed messages in the data. While the unemployment rate fell to 3.9%—the lowest level since 2000—the trend in average hourly earnings pulled back slightly, with March’s figure revised down to 2.6% from 2.7%, and April’s figure remaining at 2.6%.

 
 
 
Non-Residential Real Estate Activity: "Improved"

Non-Residential Real Estate Activity: "Improved"

April 19, 2018

April’s Beige Book report, the Federal Reserve’s qualitative assessment of conditions across the country’s 12 Districts, suggested that economic growth over the last month was split between “modest and moderate” as shown in Table 1. Headlining the list of concerns was the potential impact from the newly imposed (and proposed) tariffs, with contacts in the manufacturing and transportation industries expressing the most worry. (China has since filed a formal complaint with the WTO over the steel and aluminum tariffs.)

 
 
 
Office Employment Pulls Back; Wages Show Few Signs of Further Acceleration

Office Employment Pulls Back; Wages Show Few Signs of Further Acceleration

April 10, 2018

March’s labor market report was slightly softer than expected and was accompanied by downward revisions (-50k) to total non-farm payroll growth over the first two months of the quarter. Despite lingering concerns over prospects of wage inflation given the tightness of the labor market, a rapid advance in average hourly earnings has failed to materialize.

 
 
 
Office Employment Rises, But 2017 Growth Slows Versus 2016

Office Employment Rises, But 2017 Growth Slows Versus 2016

January 05, 2018

The payrolls report for the last month of 2017 showed a modest deceleration in employment, as total private sector jobgrowth at the establishment level rose by 146,000, well below the 239,000 upwardly-revised gain in November.

 
 
 
Tax Changes for Real Estate

Tax Changes for Real Estate

December 23, 2017

The conference committee agree to widespread changes that will affect both individual and corporate taxes beginning in 2018.

 
 
 

Key contacts

Heidi Learner

Chief Economist

+1 212 326 8648

+1 212 326 8648