Economic Insights

Economic Insights covers topics that may ultimately have an impact on commercial real estate conditions including the labor market, population trends, monetary policy announcements from the Federal Reserve and national budgetary issues.

Featured report

Office Employment Softens, but that Won’t Dissuade the Fed from a March Hike

March 10, 2017

Janet Yellen’s comments early in March had suggested that a 25 bps increase in the Fed Funds rate to 0.75% - 1.00% was all but certain next week, and today’s report will do little to dissuade the Committee that the labor market has strengthened sufficiently to remove further policy accommodation.

 

Research search results: 39 found

 
Will Financial Conditions Continue to Ease?

Will Financial Conditions Continue to Ease?

July 07, 2017

The easing of financial conditions in the U.S. appears to have ended—at least for now—as 10-year Treasury yields have risen by 25 bps since the Fed’s June rate hike. 

 
 
 
Federal Reserve Hikes Rates and Discusses Paring of its Balance Sheet

Federal Reserve Hikes Rates and Discusses Paring of its Balance Sheet

June 14, 2017

The Fed delivered on its widely telegraphed rate increase today, taking the Federal Funds policy rate from a range of 0.75% - 1.00% to 1.00% - 1.25%.

 
 
 
Office Employment Growth Continues, But 3-Month Average Drops to 11-Month Low

Office Employment Growth Continues, But 3-Month Average Drops to 11-Month Low

May 05, 2017

Although April’s jobs report exceeded expectations, revisions to the prior data tempered some of the labor market optimism.

 
 
 
Commercial Leasing Activity: “Generally Improved”

Commercial Leasing Activity: “Generally Improved”

April 19, 2017

The Beige Book report for April suggested that economic activity increased during the most recent period, even as the pick-up varied by sector.

 
 
 
Waiting Too Long Could Mean Faster Hikes Later

Waiting Too Long Could Mean Faster Hikes Later

March 15, 2017

To the extent that the economy continues to grow—as measured by employment and inflation—there is little reason to believe that the Fed will deviate from its current forecast for another two rates hikes later in 2017.

 
 
 
Office Employment Softens, but that Won’t Dissuade the Fed from a March Hike

Office Employment Softens, but that Won’t Dissuade the Fed from a March Hike

March 10, 2017

Janet Yellen’s comments early in March had suggested that a 25 bps increase in the Fed Funds rate to 0.75% - 1.00% was all but certain next week, and today’s report will do little to dissuade the Committee that the labor market has strengthened sufficiently to remove further policy accommodation.

 
 
 
Tightening Standards for Commercial Real Estate Loans

Tightening Standards for Commercial Real Estate Loans

February 14, 2017

While banks left their standards on commercial and industrial (C&I) loans largely unchanged over Q4 2016, banks tightened standards on CRE loans.

 
 
 
Healthy Rebound in Office Employment: Modest Deceleration in Wages

Healthy Rebound in Office Employment: Modest Deceleration in Wages

February 03, 2017

January’s nonfarm payroll report exceeded expectations, even as the unemployment rate rose modestly to 4.8%. Total nonfarm payrolls rose by 227,000 on the month versus consensus for a gain of 180,000 jobs, while job growth in the private sector rose even more (+237,000) as government hiring contracted. Growth in private sector employment averaged 171,000 in 2016, so January’s figure suggests a robust start to 2017.

 
 
 
December Office Employment: Lackluster, With a Chance of Rising Wages

December Office Employment: Lackluster, With a Chance of Rising Wages

January 06, 2017

December’s nonfarm payroll report missed expectations, even as wage growth rose by the fastest pace since 2009. Total nonfarm jobs rose by just 156,000 versus consensus for a gain of 175,000 jobs, while job growth in the private sector rose by a smaller 144,000. On the year, private sector employment grew by an average of 180,000 jobs per month—well off the 229,000 monthly average observed in 2015. 

 
 
 
“Operating Under a Cloud of Uncertainty”

“Operating Under a Cloud of Uncertainty”

December 14, 2016

As expected, the FOMC raised rates by 25 bps today, bringing the target range to 50-75 bps. What was surprising: Despite virtually no changes to the participants’ economic forecasts for GDP and inflation and the continued use of the word “gradual” to describe the pace of monetary policy adjustment, a third rate hike was penciled in for 2017.

 
 
 

Key contacts

Heidi Learner

Chief Economist

+1 212 326 8648

+1 212 326 8648