Economic Insights

Economic Insights covers topics that may ultimately have an impact on commercial real estate conditions including the labor market, population trends, monetary policy announcements from the Federal Reserve and national budgetary issues.

Featured report

Office Employment Softens, but that Won’t Dissuade the Fed from a March Hike

March 10, 2017

Janet Yellen’s comments early in March had suggested that a 25 bps increase in the Fed Funds rate to 0.75% - 1.00% was all but certain next week, and today’s report will do little to dissuade the Committee that the labor market has strengthened sufficiently to remove further policy accommodation.

 

Research search results: 44 found

 
Office Employment Softens, but that Won’t Dissuade the Fed from a March Hike

Office Employment Softens, but that Won’t Dissuade the Fed from a March Hike

March 10, 2017

Janet Yellen’s comments early in March had suggested that a 25 bps increase in the Fed Funds rate to 0.75% - 1.00% was all but certain next week, and today’s report will do little to dissuade the Committee that the labor market has strengthened sufficiently to remove further policy accommodation.

 
 
 
Tightening Standards for Commercial Real Estate Loans

Tightening Standards for Commercial Real Estate Loans

February 14, 2017

While banks left their standards on commercial and industrial (C&I) loans largely unchanged over Q4 2016, banks tightened standards on CRE loans.

 
 
 
Healthy Rebound in Office Employment: Modest Deceleration in Wages

Healthy Rebound in Office Employment: Modest Deceleration in Wages

February 03, 2017

January’s nonfarm payroll report exceeded expectations, even as the unemployment rate rose modestly to 4.8%. Total nonfarm payrolls rose by 227,000 on the month versus consensus for a gain of 180,000 jobs, while job growth in the private sector rose even more (+237,000) as government hiring contracted. Growth in private sector employment averaged 171,000 in 2016, so January’s figure suggests a robust start to 2017.

 
 
 
December Office Employment: Lackluster, With a Chance of Rising Wages

December Office Employment: Lackluster, With a Chance of Rising Wages

January 06, 2017

December’s nonfarm payroll report missed expectations, even as wage growth rose by the fastest pace since 2009. Total nonfarm jobs rose by just 156,000 versus consensus for a gain of 175,000 jobs, while job growth in the private sector rose by a smaller 144,000. On the year, private sector employment grew by an average of 180,000 jobs per month—well off the 229,000 monthly average observed in 2015. 

 
 
 
“Operating Under a Cloud of Uncertainty”

“Operating Under a Cloud of Uncertainty”

December 14, 2016

As expected, the FOMC raised rates by 25 bps today, bringing the target range to 50-75 bps. What was surprising: Despite virtually no changes to the participants’ economic forecasts for GDP and inflation and the continued use of the word “gradual” to describe the pace of monetary policy adjustment, a third rate hike was penciled in for 2017.

 
 
 
What to Expect From the Fed Tomorrow

What to Expect From the Fed Tomorrow

December 13, 2016

If the year’s political events should teach us one thing, it’s that no result is ever 100% certain. However, financial markets seem to have forgotten this lesson and are pricing in an increase in the Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate with complete certainty. Recall that it’s been a full year since the Fed last increased the fed funds target to 25-50 bps; a rate increase tomorrow would take the overnight interbank lending rate higher by 25 bps to 50-75 bps.

 
 
 
November Office Employment: Labor Market Tightens

November Office Employment: Labor Market Tightens

December 02, 2016

November’s nonfarm payroll report, which modestly missed expectations, showed a few surprises. Total nonfarm jobs rose by 178,000 versus consensus for a gain of 180,000 jobs, but job growth in the private sector fell a little short, rising by 156,000. Over the past three months, private non-farm payroll growth has slowed to an average of 165,000 (September – November) versus the prior three months’ average of 197,000 (June – August.) Revisions to the prior two months reduced private employment gains by 17,000 on a combined basis.

 
 
 
Commercial Real Estate Activity: Mixed

Commercial Real Estate Activity: Mixed

November 30, 2016

The Beige Book report for November, which summarizes comments received from businesses and other contacts outside the Federal Reserve, suggested that economic activity during the most recent period “continued to expand” with most districts noting “modest” or “moderate” growth. 

 
 
 
September Office Employment: Nothing Here to Alter the Fed View

September Office Employment: Nothing Here to Alter the Fed View

October 11, 2016

September’s nonfarm payroll report, while modestly below expectations, was in line with data from recent months. Total nonfarm jobs rose by 156,000 versus a consensus for a gain of 172,000 jobs. Excluding government workers, payrolls rose by 167,000. Revisions to the prior two months reduced employment gains in July and August by 7,000 on a combined basis.

 
 
 
The FOMC Holds Rates “For the Time Being”

The FOMC Holds Rates “For the Time Being”

September 21, 2016

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to hold the target range for the Federal Funds rate at 0.25% to 0.50%, although three dissenters voiced support for a rate hike today. In a dovish statement, while the Committee judged that “the case for an increase in the federal funds rates [had] strengthened” and that “near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced,” the Committee ultimately “decided…to wait for the further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives.”

 
 
 

Key contacts

Heidi Learner

Chief Economist

+1 212 326 8648

+1 212 326 8648