Economic Insights

Economic Insights covers topics that may ultimately have an impact on commercial real estate conditions including the labor market, population trends, monetary policy announcements from the Federal Reserve and national budgetary issues.

Featured report

Office Employment Softens, but that Won’t Dissuade the Fed from a March Hike

March 10, 2017

Janet Yellen’s comments early in March had suggested that a 25 bps increase in the Fed Funds rate to 0.75% - 1.00% was all but certain next week, and today’s report will do little to dissuade the Committee that the labor market has strengthened sufficiently to remove further policy accommodation.

 

Research search results: 38 found

 
May Office Employment: An Aberration or the Start of a Slowdown?

May Office Employment: An Aberration or the Start of a Slowdown?

June 03, 2016

May’s nonfarm payroll report showed a sub-par gain of 38,000 jobs—a figure that drops to just 25,000 jobs if government hiring is excluded.

 
 
 
Commercial Real Estate Activity: “Increased in Most Districts”

Commercial Real Estate Activity: “Increased in Most Districts”

June 01, 2016

The Beige Book report for June, which summarizes comments received from businesses and other contacts outside the Federal Reserve, suggested that economic growth during the most recent period was “modest,” with an uptick in the number of Districts seeing slower or marginal growth. Nonetheless, commercial real estate activity “increased in most Districts,” with greater space absorption in Atlanta and Kansas City. Dallas reported healthy demand for office space.

 
 
 
Strength in April Office Employment Masks Softening Report Overall

Strength in April Office Employment Masks Softening Report Overall

May 06, 2016

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 160,000 in April, with net revisions to January’s and February’s figures subtracting 19,000 workers. While the household unemployment rate remained at 5.0%, the participation rate fell back slightly to 62.8%. The average workweek lengthened by 0.1 hours, while average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% MoM and 2.5% YoY, just below the peak annual level of earnings growth observed in December 2015 (2.6% YoY). 

 
 
 
Federal Open Market Committee: No Change, But June is a Possibility

Federal Open Market Committee: No Change, But June is a Possibility

April 27, 2016

While this may seem like a negligible change in wording, the fact that the FOMC does not view overseas developments as actively threatening U.S. growth suggests the door for a June rate hike is now open, even as the Committee acknowledged what is likely to be a very weak quarter for growth. (Q1 GDP data will be released tomorrow.) Most other assessments were unchanged.

 
 
 
Commercial Real Estate Activity: “Generally Increased”

Commercial Real Estate Activity: “Generally Increased”

April 18, 2016

The Beige Book report for April, which summarizes comments received from businesses and other contacts outside the Federal Reserve, suggested that more Districts reported “moderate” or improved economic activity versus last month’s report. Notably, no District reported a decline in economic growth. 

 
 
 
Employment Supports June Fed Move

Employment Supports June Fed Move

April 01, 2016

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 215,000 in March, with net revisions to January’s and February’s figures subtracting just 1,000 workers. While the household unemployment rate rose to 5.0%, the increase was largely due to growth in the participation rate, which reached a two-year high: the labor force grew by almost 400k, but the number of employed workers rose by just 246,000. (Note that the unemployment rate figures are based on a different survey from the nonfarm payroll count.)

 
 
 
Commercial Real Estate Activity: “Flat to Strong”

Commercial Real Estate Activity: “Flat to Strong”

March 03, 2016

The Beige Book report for March, which summarizes comments received from businesses and other contacts outside the Federal Reserve, showed a notable change in tone from previous releases. While reports “continued to indicate that economic activity expanded in most Districts,” there was an increase in the number of Districts that reported mixed conditions; one District reported a modest decline in activity. 

 
 
 
Major Rebound in Office Employment

Major Rebound in Office Employment

January 08, 2016

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 292,000 in December, well ahead of consensus estimates for a 200,000 gain, as the household unemployment rate held steady at 5.0 percent. Job gains were aided by unseasonably warm weather, which led construction jobs higher by 45,000 for the month and 128,000 for the quarter (vs. just 32,000 in Q3 2015.) Upward revisions for October and November increased the tally by an additional 50,000.

 
 
 

Key contacts

Heidi Learner

Chief Economist

+1 212 326 8648

+1 212 326 8648